i'm krystal ball. who has the lead? what will happen in the ninth? are we in for extra innings? it's the sport analysis you count on me for. >> mitt romney comes to the plate this hour hoping to be a hit with ohio voters. we're live with him there. >> i'm s.e. cupp. sometimes voters are poor sports. did you know losing a home team could main game over on election day? >> our toure, last night the panda bears struck three homers to win game one for the used to be giants. >> plus time-out, i have big news. it's time to play ball on this thursday, october 25th. >> what? as promised for all you cycle politicians and baseball

fans, we know who you are, we're back on the thursday field after the rain delay or the debate dlal. the game is in the bottom of the eighth is still a virtual tie. each size has complimentary players like michelle, bill and joe ready to help out. still out there are ann, chris and paul the water man ryan to be heard from. let's pause to talk about the real world series of baseball. it was panda time last night in game one in the first inning. and then in the third inning. >> bam. >> and one more time in the fifth. san francisco sandoval kills detroit's verlander. the giants go up 1-0 in the series. sandoval is the fourth to hit three homers in a world series game joining babe ruth, reggie jackson and al pujols. back to politics with 12 days to go. >> we have a long way to go, virginia, but we've come too far to turn back now. if you give me four more years,

you'll have a president who always hears your voice. >> the challenger mitt romney hits back. >> his campaign gets smaller and smaller. our campaign is about big things. american want to see big changes, and i'm going to bring it to this country. >> to got this game framed let's bring in dr. j, jonathan from politico. no matter what sport you want to use, is this all about ohio, or is that too simple, especially with all this about provisional ballots in ohio? >> it's too simple depending on how ohio goes. i think that there's more at play here. ohio, obviously, is the big crown jewel of if you consider romney ahead in florida as a lot of polls are showing. there's still an inning left on

to play, if i can boar row it from your metaphor. i'm confused between the dr. j, the kung fu panda and baseball. i think it works. >> if you do a kung fu panda metaphor next time, i'd appreciate that. yesterday originally off the record conversation of the president with "the des moines register" was released. in it he said i'm absolutely confident that we can get what is the equivalent of the grand bargain that essentially i've been offering to the republicans for a lodge time, which is $250 worth of can you tells for a dollar in spends and work to reduce the cost of our health care programs. the president is saying in the first six months he's likely to strike a grand bargain. now today you have a piece in politico where mitt romney is saying essentially the same thing about him. do you think that's a response to "the des moines register" story? >> i don't think it's aa response to the dm register story. i can't go too deep into the sourcing here. suffice it to say, i don't think

it's a responsal all. they've been planning for a long time. one of the things they're trying to do now that a lot of republicans think he's in a position to win is tamp down expectations a little bit. they frame it as the first 50 days. they don't want people to think they can get out of the box and undo obama care and slash spending on day one. they want time to put together a pragmatic budget. they sigh that as a priority. it's one of the reasons that paul ryan and the house budget committee chairman ended up as the vice presidential candidate. >> essentially he can't do what he promised during the primary? >> not in the first 100 days. >> jonathan, i'm going to call you j-dog. what? >> your own nickname? >> yeah. we have our own thing going. matt bey has a column in the times today how bill clinton may have hurt the obama campaign suggesting that bill clinton's

advice to barack obama to paint mitt romney midway through the campaign as a severe conservative instead of sticking with the cemented narrative that mitt romney was a flip-flopper may end up hurting obama in the end. it worked for bill clinton because he was seen as a centrist. he was viewed by voters as a progressive and people see mitt romney as a flip-flopper. what you are your thoughts? >> the real reasons that barack obama has to worry about mitt romney right now are the state of the economy, number one, and also number two, he has to worry about mitt romney because he fell asleep in the first debate and let him come in when mitt romney had a lead in the swing states. whether they painted him as a flip-flopper or extreme conservative, it seemed to be working all summer. people were crediting bill clinton with this brilliant idea of the narrative and things turn in the polls and he's not seen

as a genius. the real thing is the state of the economy more than anything else. >> i've been skeptical of this advice clinton gave about dpoent play the flip-flopper card. it's because the flip-flopper card was played so much on clinton. this was the guy who said he would have voted for the war in 1991, but he understood the arguments against it. he was the quintessential flip-flopper and he might be too sensitive to that. i don't know if the advice was from a practical place than experience. who knows. jonathan, i'm going to call you jonathan, -- >> my parents appreciate that. >> obviously, this race is a much different place right now than before the debates. mitt romney might be ahead by an inch or a fraction of an inch nationally in this horse race, but he's behind by several points in the states that he has to win. we're talking about ohio or wisconsin or one of those. it seems like to the extent he

had momentum, the momentum has stopped now. this race for the moment seems frozen in place. what do you hear from republicans about what they can do over the last, you know, less than two weeks now to get two or three points in a place like ohio. that's a lot. what is different in the next two weeks that will get them that extra big bump? >> i think there are a couple of things. certainly the turnout. i'm not going to give you the cliche it comes down to turnout, obviously. all elections turn on which campaign gets more people out to vote. the on the ground machines do matter. we saw it with bush in 2004. so i think that the way that they're able to execute on election day in ohio is very important. beyond that i think that the romney people continue to make their sale, trying to find issues where they can draw a wedge with microtargeted audiences and, of course, hope that maybe some of the modeling is a little off on what it looks like on election day.

ath that wouldn't be unheard of for the polls to assume too many of one type of people show up in terms of democrats or republicans and too little of the other show up in terms of democrats or republicans. i think there are a couple of things at play here that make ohio still interesting. it's not well outside the margin of error at this point. >> all right, dr. j. what's up? >> you're going with dr. j? >> my reverse jam. >> good for you. romney has pedals a narrative that's not true. nate silver is taking it down today. in polls, romney's momentum seems to have stopped. he gained ground a week or two after denver, but it seems he's no longer doing so. it seems to me that there's sort of a karl rovian sort of confidence p eddling game. are they saying we have momentum

to get the media to bite on that to tell the voters they have momentum and people want to roll with the winner? the truth is we have a serious map problem? >> any campaign wants to claim momentum when they can. it's important to a campaign where they feel they have a moment in time. whether or not it continues to be true or it's the feeling that people may have had a week ago, i think that's certainly the message you put out. regardless of what the poll numbers look like, if you were behind before, you want to gain steam. president obama is saying we've had a lead and we're maintaining it. that's his belief. obviously it has shrunk some. the belief on the obama side that if they do what they're supposed to do on election day and execute that organizational turnout device, then they will end up winning. >> all right. dr. j, j dog, jonathan, thank you. >> this thing is going to come down to the states.

next, we kick off our special coverage of the states in play. i know. your brain just exploded. that's in the spinning as "the cycle" rolls on thursday, october 25th. [ female announcer ] need help keeping your digestive balance? try the #1 gastroenterologist recommended probiotic. align. align naturally helps maintain digestive balance. ♪ ooh, baby, can i do for you today? ♪ try align today.

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right now we are waiting for mitt romney worthington, ohio. his second stop of day, by the way. he was in cincinnati this morning, and he'll be in defiance tonight. an apt location for the candidate trying to defy the

polls. ohio is arguably the biggest prize of all the graulgts l battleground states. no republican has won the white house without winning ohio. >> it's the temptations. >> no, "shug ar pie honeys". >> it's the temptations. >> it's right here. >> i'm sure twitter will correct us. >> as dave said, you say it, and you're wrong. >> i'm standing my ground. "my girl" is temptations. that's the same sound as "baby i need your loving." anyway, with that said, there are other paths to 270 for both candidates. today we're unveiling the first of our seven states to watch leading up to election day. first on the list, what i think of as the dark horse is wisconsin. it's home to ten electoral votes and also the bucks and brewers and badgers. the president is currently up by less than three points according to the real clear politics average of all states.

compare that to his 14-point victory against in john mccain in 2008. it becomes clear how close the race is this time around. we're going to it resolve this bit end of the smoe. motown is a strong suit. "sugar pie honey bunch" is the four tops. here's how i look at wisconsin. it is a state that you can -- i think it says go about the struggle mitt romney faces. between ohio and wisconsin, he has to win one of them. he's not looking that great in ohio. i don't think he's looking much better in wisconsin, but i think wisconsin might be in some ways a riper target for him. yes, it hasn't voted for a republican since reagan in the landslide in 18944. however, it came close in 2000, a fraction of a point. when we say it's a blue state, we're not talking massachusetts and rhode island here. i think if you look at -- we

talk about that slide from 14 points that the obama margin in '08 down to a two, three-point race right now. it's dramatic slide. there's a greater concentration in wisconsin than most states of the exact sort of voter demographically who is turning on obama, white working class and white male. we had an abc poll nationally it shows romney's share of the white male vote up to 65%. maybe there's a possibility there. the reason why wisconsin a little more than ohio and i agree they're both taifrable to ohio but a little more is the extent they have a positive impact, it's in the home state. maybe a point or maybe two. if you're at 2.7, and ryan in the southeast part of the state where he's from, maybe an extra point or two on election day and maybe it helps. >> maybe as the resident cheesehead of the table i'm a little overly optimistic. >> that's how we think of you.

>> no, as the optimist. >> i think wisconsin is in play. i've been saying that since 2010 with the ouster of russ feingold and also the election of scott walker and then essentially the re-election of scott walker. then you put paul ryan in the state. his favorables at home are at 50%, pretty high. i think it is in play in the ways that you laid out, steven. i talked to the chairman of the rnc from wisconsin. they think the ground game in wisconsin is really, really good. of course they'll say that. they count wisconsin as a state in their column. i think probably even more than ohio. i think they feel really good about it. >> i agree that wisconsin is probably an easier reach than ohio, but i still don't see it. romney hasn't led in a poll there since august. he still has a three-point deficit. there's not much time left in the race. yes, scott walker won in the

recall election. what the exit polls showed is a lot of people went and voted just against the idea of a recall. they were uncomfortable with recalling the state's governor. almost 92% of the people that voted for tom barrett are intending to vote for barack obama in november. only 76% of scott walker voters in the recall election are planning on voting for mitt romney. there's quite a significant chunk of people that voted for scott walker plan on voting for barack obama. >> that happens a lot in wisconsin. the people in paul ryan's district generally vote for a democratic president, too. it's a split state. >> it's hard to flip a state from one corner on the other. wisconsin has a longer history than many states, than most states. as you pointed out, six elections in a row. it went for gore and kerry. it's democratic. romney had not led a poll there

since august. nate silver has the president up 3.8. the state fundamental is over 6, projecting 51% for the president, under 48% for romney. this would be -- this would start to look like a landslide if he could take away wisconsin. >> no, i tend to agree. it tells me romney is running behind on it. >> he has to win. >> "sugar pie honeyy bunch is down by the four tops. that's the four tops version we were hearing. that was definitely the four tops version. >> who knew. >> i wanted in the segment somehow after this on a more somber note, because today is actually the tenth an verary. ten years ago that paul well stone was killed in a plane crash 58 years old. i think of another minnesota democrat, hub better humphrey

whosdz the moral test of government is how it treats thaun in the dawn of life and the twilight and the shadow. i think paul wellstone in the senate was a worthy heir to that tradition, and i think the senate is a different and in many ways a worse place without him. ten years ago today we acknowledge the loss. we talk about senate races in the guest spot, so stay with us. take advil, and maybe have to take up to four in a day. or take aleve, which can relieve pain all day with just two pills. good eye.

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number of u.s. senate races are nothing short of plital smackdowns. to see what's at stake start with where things stand right now. currently the democrats hold a slight majority with 51 seats, but what will november 6th do to that number? they identify five toss-up democratic seats and five toss-ups on the republican side

that could change the balance of power. at least one current blue senate seat, the retiring nebraska democrat ben nem son they say is likely to turn red. to break it down we welcome back jennifer duffy. jennifer, thanks for joining us. >> great to be here. >> so i want to start with the guys who have been in the headlines this week. we have legitimate rape todd aakin in missouri and mr. rape is god's gift to women jeff mourdock in indiana. can they hold onto their seats given their comments? >> first of all, missouri has been over for a long time. it's aa red state, so the result may be closer than it deserves to be, but it's been over for a long time. as for indiana, we don't know yet. >> by over, you mean claire mccaskill is going to win it? >> yes, she gets re-elected. indiana, we don't know yet. first of all, i think that a lot of what mourdock said has been

taken out of context. if you read the quote itself, he does not say that rape is god's gift, but that's not to say it didn't do some damage there. it's a very, very close race. what we really need to see is what voters of indiana think. i'd like to wait a cull of days and see some polling. >> we haven't seen polls there? >> no. it's a very close race. it was a very clas race, and maybe this is just enough to tip it the other way. >> that was very charitable reading of what mourdock says. if the pregnancy is the gift that comes from the rape, what is that? it's a very -- it's a very tricky statement. i'm not going to ask you to read it. >> it's a tricky thing, but i won't take a position at all. >> you sort of did. let's talk about connecticut, which is interesting to me, it's like the sixth borough. lind day mcmahon versus chris murray. she's clobbered among women and trailing by three points in the rc poll of polls.

you can't buy an election, can you, i guess? >> no, and i think that, god, that's been proven over and over again. ask meg whitman in california in 2010. she spent $160 million and still lost. you know what? for a state as blue as connecticut is, it's probably closer than it ought to be. i think that murphy did turn around a pretty disastrous performance in august and september is now, in fact, a couple of points ahead. this is not a big early voting absentee ballot state, so every day counts. a race that's three points is one worth watching. >> she has spent $82 million of her own money. we see a lot of linda mcmahon ads in new york and almost no chris murphy ads at all. on the dylan radigan shows, 84% of candidates that outspend their opponents win the election. when you self-finance, the

number of winners drops to 11%. they don't tend to win even though they throw tons of money. why do you think that is? >> when you're self-financing, that means you don't have to go through the process of reaching out to people and building the coalition. i'm the first we need to get the money out of politics, et cetera, but there's something to be said by asking for vote and asking for money. you go through the process of getting peppered with questions and getting polished in that way in terms of responding to people and getting a sense of what they want. it's hard when you don't have to go through that process to be an effective candidate. >> i want to ask a question here. one follow-up on that i can't help but think about. the other factor is it in high profile races with the self-funding, when it becomes an issue, it fehr mmts a bash lash. the classic example is new jersey, jon corzine running for it in 2000.

jon corzine barely ee k'd out the victory. they were getting so much bad publicity they lost a point in the polls. "the new york times" endorsed the republican in that race. i can't remember the last time that happened. i want to ask you about the overall state of play now. i'm looking at where the senate battlegrounds are right now. missouri, the democrats managed to take that off the board. claire mccaskill is fine. we're talking about north dakota and arizona, an easer republican win and indiana, if lugar was there and olympia snow. whatever happens on election day the democrat vs won "the cycle" to date in a decisive way. is that a farieding on it? >> sure n-a way they have. in february we said republicans probably had a 60% to 65% of chance of getting the four seats they need to get the majority.

that percentage now is below 40. they have, you know -- they need a perfect election night, which they're unlikely to get, to win the majority. so yeah, sure, democrats have won the cycle. >> jennifer, that maine race is really interesting. king is an independent and says he won't reveal what party to caucus with until after the election. for us race watchers that's infuriating. what's the sense you have of where he'll go, and will that have a significant impact on the senate tally? >> i think it will have an impact. my best guess is that he caucuses with democrats. you know, there have been a few hints here. he's done a lot of fund-raising with high profile democrats. he was very critical of republican outside groups for getting in the race, but when the democratic senatorial campaign committee went in, complete silence. so i think that that decision has been made, and i'm also beginning to think it's made for a long time. >> jennifer, i have to ask you about my home state of virginia.

we have a close one there with tim kaine and george allen. is there an example where the senate race goes the way of the presidential race? >> that has been our assumption almost all cycle because this race is so very close. that may be the way it goes, but we're starting to see some interesting wrinkles in the polls. i mean, you talked to the parties and democrats have their candidates and republicans have their candidates a couple up. there are times when, you know, kaine outperformed president obama or allen outperforms mitt romney. i'm not as certain that as the presidential goes so does the senate race i was probably a month ago. boy, i don't think we're going to know the answer in virginia until fairly late in the evening. it will be that close. >> all right. that will be a fun to watch. what's clear this election is every single vote at least in the baulgts ground states counts. up next, a grassroots effort to get out the black vote this

election cycle. the message? the lessgacy of america's first black president is on the line. >> vote as if you're life depended on it. >> vote as if your life depends on it. >> vote as if your life depended on it. . . .

on every one of our cards there's a date. a reminder... that before this date, we have to exceed expectations. we have to find new ways to help make life easier,

more convenient and more rewarding. it's the reason why we don't have costumers. we have members. american express. welcome in. prand you're seeing that rightno quit in amnow.a... over five million new jobs. exports up forty one percent. home values... rising. our auto industry... back. and our heroes are coming home. we're not there yet, but we've made real progress and the... last thing we should do is turn back now. here's my plan for the next four years: making education and training a national priority; building on our manufacturing boom; boosting american-made energy; reducing the deficits responsibly by cutting where... we can, and asking the wealthy to pay a little more. and ending the war in afghanistan, so we can... do some nation-building here at home.

that's the right path. so read my plan, compare it to governor romney's... and decide which is better for you. it's an honor to be your president... and i'm asking for your vote... so together, we can keep moving america forward. i'm barack obama and i approve this message. that was my first time voting. i voted for a black president, which was like awesome. i didn't do that for my mom, i did it for my grandmother. >> my dad cried. it was emotional. it was something great for us. >> four years later, a new election. i don't feel it like that. >> the president's been under a lot of pressure on the economy. >> the private sector is not doing fine. >> he's not listening to the will of the people. >> repeal obama care. >> to me, he hasn't done anything. >> since the spring it's been a hotly contested race that could go down to the wire and could be

decided by black america. >> what a difference four years ago make. that's from the series "the second coming" which following three grassroots organizers to get out the black vote for obama. where 2008 was historic for many, 2012 doesn't have the same force. b.e.t. shows what black people around the country are doing to keep our president in office. black voters overwhelmingly favor the president. late this summer romney polled at 0% among black people, but there is a we're that 2008's incredible turnout numbers will be seen as anomaly rather than a wat watershed moment. here's mark levine. "will black america decide the 2012 election," is the second part titled "game change" premier premieres tomorrow night at 9:00 p.m. eastern on b.e.t. obama has not been president for

black america but president for everybody, and he never said he would be anything different. i hear pockets of discontent mung black people, but he's not president for them and done special things for them, for us. do you think that in your research you'll see black people, some black people punish him for that, or does the sheen of the spiritual glory of black person being president still reflect through black america? >> well, toure, that is the big question. i think first of all the thrill is gone. there's no doubt about that for black america and for many others who supported obama. that was the win is a history, we're at our back then. this is far different and a lot of people are obviously frustrated and disappointed. at the same time this is part of the focus of the show on tomorrow night. i think the hostility that the republic party has shown to the african-american community and to the latino community and the

whole voter suppression movement of trying to limit how many people can vote, voter i.d., disenfranchisement, and there's a backlash. that's something that's going to motivate people in a new way. >> i think there is something of a thrill still there for most people. i think you're talking about a fringe that are disappointed now, but most understand the historic importance of a black president. i wonder if you talked to people about how they would feel, the pain they might feel if obama was not re-elected. >> that is a very good point, and i think that's become clearer and clearer over the last few weeks. i mean, i'll be hohn with you. i went to a snoop dogg concert in may, and i was disturbed by some of the young people who basically said, look, obama has got four years. it's time for somebody new. what's the other guy's name? i don't know. >> they're not going to vote, though, are they? >> it's the attention deficit

dysfunctional syndrome. i think as we've gone through the debates, as we've gone through the conventions, as we've gone through the 47% tape, i think you're right. people have begun to realize what the consequences could be, and that is a real motivator. >> mark, you talked on some of the voter i.d. efforts, the laws that have been passed across the country and essentially in an attempt tloimt minority votes. that's go i agree with, there's a backlash it has energized the community. is it a problem for the black community that there's essentially no competition for their vote? that's why efforts were enacted. there was no sense among the republican party they could win over voters. their best hope was to shut them out at the polls. isn't that a problem for the black community, the democrats take them for granted and the republicans take them for granted they can't win it over. >> i think it's a problem for the african-american community. i think it's a problem pour american democracy.

you've got one of the major parties, the party of lincoln, the party that was created to fight slavery has abandoned the cause. that doesn't mean there aren't high profile republican african-americans, but at the republican convention it was only 2% of the actual delegates were african-american. i think that is a terrible choice the party has made, the republican party, not to be more forceful in reaching out to blacks and certainly in the hispanic population the same thing, offending them. the whole idea in cornell belcher, who is a pole ster and a strategist is one of the character ostomy night's show. he says there's a new coalition of color that is emerging. the demographics in the american electorate are changes, and that if a party wants to remain a major viable party in the united states, they have to reach out to the coalition. >> i think part of the problem

is, of course, when republicans do, they're damned if they do, dammed if they don't. they're scolded and mocked for reaching out to republicans as pandering. i want to ask you if you have a sense there's an unfair burden placed on black america. we put it in the tease. the legacy of the first black president is on the livenlt these are huge sort of overriding burdens to put a community that is not monolith thick onto, and i've often been told i have to support women candidates because i'm a woman. is black america allowed to be disappointed in obama? >> well, i hope you get a chance to see this. to b.e.t.'s credit, one of the things unique about it is we try to amplify a real diversity of voices. believe me, there are people here disappointed, that are angry, that have differing views that don't support obama. i think you see a real full

spectrum. it's not a monolithic voice. one area like the black church, obviously, there's been passionate debate since the president's statements about same-sex marriage earlier this year. there's been amazing debate and we have great scenes in the church but in families, families and friends getting together and really having an amazing kind of political debate with a lot of love. you see the diversity of opinions. >> i think there's a flipside so what s.e. is saying where there's some voices on the right who maybe aren't eager to allow african-americans to support president obama simply as a president. i'm thinking today of the reaction to colin pow rel announcing he will support obama from a second term. this is a bright bar columnist. colin powell was affirmative action general and he's supporting an affirmative action

president. rush limbaugh he's doing it because he's black. mark my words, obama will be endorsed by powell against because he's black. there's a troubling attitude there as well. >> that goes to this whole question of has president obama been treated differently by people that disagree, whether a columnist or senator or governor putting a finger in her face. certainly one thing we found across the board, even people frustrated or disappointed or didn't even vote was they felt they had never witnessed a lack of respect to a president. now, some may disagree. obviously bush got a lot of disrespect and nixon way back did, but there certainly was a feeling among so many people that we spoke to pa that because obama is black he got dissed in a way that very few people did. even yesterday trump's ridiculous statement. i heard people talking about it. >> that absolutely fits into the narrative. mark, thank you very much.

up next, the story about voter preferences that cnn doesn't want you to see. we've got a lot to say about it, especially my sisters here. first we go to worthington, ohio where romney is addressing the masses right now. take a listen. we'll be right back. >> we will win. we're going to make sure our workers have the skills they need to succeed. there are 47 different federal work force training programs. they report to eight different agencies, and can you imagine all the overahead and waste associated with that. i want to take those dollars and give ohio its fair share and create the train programs for their own people and the way they think is best. and for our schools, for our schools i want to put our kids first, our teachers first, our parents first and the teachers union and their interest has to

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for their "destination wedding." double miles you can "actually" use. but with those single mile travel cards... [ bridesmaid ] blacked out... but i'm a bridesmaid. oh! "x" marks the spot she'll never sit. but i bought a dress! a toast... ...to the capital one venture card. fly any airline, any flight, anytime. double miles you can actually use. what a coincidence? what's in your wallet? [ all screaming ] watch the elbows ladies. inches in today's backspin we'd like to comment on a recent cnn report, the findings of which had krystal and i intrigued. do hormones drive women's votes they derched whether ladies are in a relationship, single or ovulating can influence their

vote. the story has since been pulled for failing to, quote, meet the editorial standards of cnn. let's examine why. one quote, they, being the researchers, found that women at their most fertile times of the month were less likely to be religion if they were single, more likely to be religion if they were in committed relationships. >> really, cnn? really? >> really? >> really? what's this have to do with voting? oh, we're going somewhere. >> here's the rest of the research. kwet, when women are ovulating they feel sexier and therefore lean more toward liberal attitudes on abortion and marriage equate. married women have the same hormones but take the opposite viewpoint. >> really, really cnn? >> really? >> s.e., apparently you don't feel sexy enough, or you'd be an obama voter. >> this just in. apparently the scientists behind this research was a dr. akin, a dr. todd akin.

>> it makes sense now. >> let's take this to the table. do women vote with their parts or their hearts? i can't tell from this, because apparently i only vote when i'm ovulating or religious? i can't make much sense of it. >> what i really liked until the article is at the end they said, a more elaborate research design is needed to examine it further. >> stop examining it. do not do more research. abandon and abort mission. >> how does it make you feel when you're ov the lulatinovula? >> i don't want to say anything, but i feel sexier lately. >> i knew it. >> why did nobody at cnn say, wait a minute. doesn't this make sense. don't they have women over there? >> the report, not the study, but the report was written by a woman. >> no. >> yes, so. >> you were kidding about that dr. akin thing? >> it wasn't actually science

brought to you by todd akin, although that's how it sounded. absurd. >> it sounded like science brought to you by "the onion." it read like satire. >> they were serious. >> really, cnn? really? >> really? >> really? >> really? >> steve, if you got something here? >> speaking of ovulating, we have -- we came up with a few other of these, you know, weird science study that is have come out, if you do this you're more likely to vote for this guy. here is the real way to win elections. here is a couple. number one -- >> sharks? >> sharks. here is the shark one. a political science went back to the 1916 election. there was a spate of shark attacks off the new jersey towns. the coastal towns where the sharks were eating people, the support for woodrow wilson dropped eight points. >> what? >> it was out of whack with his support -- >> wait. >> that is conclusive.

>> the peep who got eaten, how did they vote? >> if they lives in new jersey, they probably did vote. >> this is a very sciencey show. >> number two, weather. when there's extreme droughts or floods, you can shave a point and a half off the incumbent's vote total. so again there you go. here is my favorite, this is the sports team, college football, ft. your college football team is winning, having a good season, fall is the election season, the football season, for instance, my beloved kansas city wildcats are number three in the country, manhattan, kansas, if there were a mayoral election in manhattan, kansas, the lincumbet would be much more inclined to win. >> are you going to the game? >> i am seriously considering, kansas state university, i'm

your biggest fan, fly me out there. texas tech university -- >> if -- >> the moral of the story is the mayor can feel pretty goo because the town is so excited for the football team and, therefore, the incumbent gets more popular. >> we had a fantastic olympics. the united states of america. doesn't that bode well for president obama? >> s.e., see any flaws in that? >> no, that makes sense. >> rock solid. >> science. up next, a big announcement about the future of krystal ball. ♪

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i think that barack obama should win. >> why do you think barack obama should win? >> because he takes good care of us. >> and what do you think about mitt romney? >> mitt romney, well, i don't know. >> about a year ago by then 3-year-old and i sat down to have dinner. we chatted about baby animals, the fresh beat band, the usual. when conversation petered down, ella said, mama, let's talk about something else. okay, babe, what would you like to talk about? she quickly replied mitt romney and so it began. started with basic questions about who the president is, what do they do? why can't mitt romney and barack obama both be president? she still sees this as a reasonable possibility. why can't they both be president? >> yeah, they could be half

president. >> see, i haven't turned her into a hardened partisan just yet. >> there's time. >> then i had to explain to ella how voting works. she was outraged, outraged when i told her kids aren't allowed to vote. she was ready to take to the streets, but it was bedtime so that had to wait. i have had to justify my own voting intentions. what's wrong with mitt romney? is he mean to animals? i swear, she really did ask me that. i didn't have the hard to tell her. i had to address her criticisms of my election-related tv appearances. like, mama, why do you always talk about the same thing? and mama, why are you so boring? i think romney's big bird comments must have made it somehow to the preschool water cooler because ever school one evening a deeply troubled ella asked me why romney is cutting big bird? in her mind cutting is exclusively something that's done with scissors. here is what she thinks now. what did mitt romney want to do to big bird?

>> mitt romney, he wanted to fire him. >> i've handled all of these questions with varying levels of acumen. that big bird one was tough to untangle. yesterday ale la bested my mommy explaining powers. mama, what's the electoral college? there's no possible way to explain the electoral college to a 4-year-old. my response, ask uncle steve, and don't worry, steve, she will. good luck with that, buddy. her electoral questions have worn me down and i get the sense that the whole country is actually a bit weary but with only 12 days totion, the end is in sight. soon the ballots will be cast and hopefully the questions on this topic at least for now will quiet a bit. four years from now we'll be back. i just learned i am expecting a new little politico next summer. maybe next time around ella can explain all this to her little brother or sister. >> congratulations.

>> oh! >> thank you. >> so excited. >> tingles. >> can we go get some beers. >> happy hour after this, right? >> we have 30 seconds left. let's name the child right now. >> it should be toure. >> toure jr. >> no, it's not my child. it's jonathan's child. >> then why am i -- >> because we're friends. >> ellie feels strongly if it's a girl it should be melody. >> that's a good choice. >> that's going to be tough. thank you, guys. i'm excited. all right. that does it for "the cycle" and martin bashir, it's all yours. >> krystal, you're wonderful and your first child is beautiful and your second will be, too. thank you for sharing that and we extend our warmest congratulations from the team who work on this broadcast. >> thank you. >> great news. good afternoon, it's thursday october 25th, and governor romney, governor romney, over here! governor romney! does he not hear